Aviva Premiership Betting: Bath will show no mercy to desperate Falcons
“Bath will be gunning for it with Danny Grewcock, Butch James and Luke Watson all eager to go out with a bang.”
Newcastle and Leeds are fighting for their lives as Geoffrey Riddle discusses the big matches and best bets on the final weekend of Premiership action.
It will be one of the great ironies if Newcastle are relegated from the Premiership this weekend that their flyhalf, Jimmy Gopperth, will finish the season as the highest points scorer in the league.
The Kiwi has scored over 66 per cent of Newcastle’s points so far this campaign. The Falcons travel to Bath in hope rather than expectation at securing the bonus-point victory that would secure their survival in the top flight. They have lost their last seven matches, their poorest run for 15 years and it is fair to say that if they stay up they will have limped over the line. Their record down at the Recreation Ground is poor, too, with only one success in their last 13 visits to the West Country. Newcastle’s problems have stemmed from their chronic inability to cross the tryline, and with only 25 tries this season they have scored the fewest.
Gopperth has been extraordinary this season, and he is the second-most accurate kicker in the section behind Charlie Hodgson with 78 of his 96 attempts on goal a success.
Newcastle’s strength, however, is totally redundant against Bath, who are one of the cleanest sides in the Premiership. Bath have conceded only six yellow cards this season, but what is most impressive is that they have conceded the fewest scoring penalties.Little opportunity for Gopperth therefore. Without the comfort blanket of Gopperth’s points, it is difficult to see where Newcastle are going to trouble Bath, who need a big win to propel them into the semi-final picture. Last weekend, when the two sides met at Kingston Park, Newcastle could not play themselves out of their own half in the second period despite enjoying the advantage of a backing wind and they were lucky to not lose by more. Sir Ian McGeechan has said that Bath will concentrate solely on manoeuvring into a position where victory is assured before they even consider the aspect of four tries and the high street layers have been shrewd to price the differential between the two teams at 14 points – two converted tries. Betfair punters have a slight advantage, not necessarily in price, but in that the exchange offers a handicap of 13.5. Defeats by greater margins to Saracens and Gloucester recently indicate that Newcastle do suffer terrible beatings on the road to good sides and, although Bath fall just below that, they will be gunning for it with Danny Grewcock, Butch James and Luke Watson all eager to go out with a bang. Fellow relegation candidates Leeds don’t have it any easier with a trip to Northampton. Saints coach Jim Mallinder has made seven changes to the side that demolished Perpignan last week in the Heineken Cup, although England stars Ben Foden and Chris Ashton make the line-up.
Leeds are without their talismanic skipper, Macro Wentzel, who is nursing a calf muscle injury. The northerners lost by 20 points last time, and with Northampton on a roll of five wins from their last six matches it looks as if Franklin’s Gardens will enjoy the last glimpse of Neil Back’s gritty Leeds side in the Premiership.
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