Heineken Cup Betting: Can Tigers carry road form across Irish Sea?

Leicester are in form but how will they fare against their old enemies? And is Geoffrey Riddle still backing Saints to win the Heineken Cup as they prepare for the visit of Ulster?

French teams were [1.9] to win the Heineken Cup on Betfair before the tournament began and here we are at the quarter-final stage with four still in the hunt.

The problem for backers of the French teams is that they battle against each other in Spain, and neither of the two teams that progress will enjoy home advantage in the semi-finals, either.

The importance of home advantage in the knockout rounds cannot be overstated. There have been 56 quarter-final ties and the home team has won 43 of those. That’s a 77% strike-rate, but there is an Achilles’ heel.

Of the 13 successes by away sides, four of those were at relocated grounds to ensure greater gate receipts for the home side. So Leicester’s success against Leinster at Lansdowne Road in 2005 will be the template that Richard Cockerill, the Tigers’ coach, will be looking to emulate when his side cross the Irish Sea for Saturday’s encounter with their old rivals.

When discussing the match betting, it is not very original to say that the prices look correct, but it is very difficult to suggest that a five-point head start for the English side is anything but. The range the handicap line that a match of this calibre can fall within is 4-8, so pitching it at five is really all the layers can do.

Leicester have claimed some notable scalps on the road recently, smashing Bath to their biggest home defeat in 96 years, while last week’s victory over Harlequins in a fractious match showed their gutsy side.

As far as form is concerned, those results trump Leinster’s defeat to Munster last weekend, especially as the Red Army have looked anything but invincible this season – they missed the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup for the first time in 13 seasons.

Northampton should really progress at the expense of Ulster, despite moving their match away from Franklin’s Gardens. The Saints are bedevilled by the statistic that no side to have qualified for the knockout stages as the No. 1 seed has gone on to lift the trophy, and only two top seeded teams have reached the final in the past 13 seasons. I tipped them at [17.0] at the start of the tournament, and I’d wait until after this match at least before trading out.

Northampton look to have got over their shaky patch where they lost five out of six matches and they have recorded some thumping wins over Wasps and Sale. Ulster come into the clash in good form, too, having won 13 of their last 16. They average just under 25 points a match away from home in that sample and a real humdinger is expected. Betfair have chalked up 43.5 as the midpoint in the total points market, and with no rain and pleasant weather expected in the East Midlands the ‘overs’ look very much worth considering.

Best bet of the weekend, however, lies in Spain, but not in Barcelona. Census Johnston, the Toulouse prop, helped Biarritz to victory over Bath and Sale in the Estadio Anoeta when playing for the Basques in the 2006 season and he is the lynchpin when the two sides clash in San Sebastian.

Johnston made some very interesting comments earlier this week with regards to how the match would play itself out.

“We know we cannot afford to let Biarritz make a good start because then the challenge will only become tougher,” he said.

“San Sebastian is the sort of place that any opposition dreads going to. The crowd and the atmosphere they generate give the Biarritz players a head-start from the kick-off. I should know because that was how I felt when they were cheering for me.

“That is something that we will have to try and block out if we’re going to win. We have areas of our game that we can improve upon but the first thing is dealing with the crowd. If we can keep them quiet then that will be a good start.”

Toulouse have scored almost 45 per cent of their points in the Top 14 this season in the first 30 minutes, whereas Biarritz are pretty sluggish in the first half hour, scoring just a third of their points in that time frame. It is crucial knowledge for in-running traders and something which suggests a lay of Biarritz pre-match before a rethink ten minutes before the interval.

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April 10, 2011 • Tags: Form, Heineken Cup • Posted in: Betting Posts

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