Heineken Cup Final Betting: Northampton v Leinster
“Northampton’s much heralded effort at reaching the finals as the first unbeaten team is impressive, but what did they beat on the way?”
Geoffrey Riddle has been on the Saints since the start but does he believe they can overcome an almost flawless Leinster side? Or is it time for our man to trade out? Here are his Heineken Cup thoughts.
Northampton aim to become the first team in
According to my ratings, Leinster look a fair bet to win on Betfair’s 5.5 handicap. The Irish side have won 16 of their last 18 matches, and one of those defeats was by a point away to their bitter rivals Munster – they are the best team in Europe. I would have pitched the match handicap between the two teams more in the 7-10 bracket than in the 4-7 ball park the high street layers have gone for but as I will come to later this could be a low-scoring fixture so the line is compressed. Last season, I recommended in my Heineken Cup preview that Biarritz were overpriced and suggested backing them at 22-1. I thought the Basques were overpriced again when they reached the final against Toulouse but suggested a wager on Toulouse to win by 1-12 points. They won 21-19. Northampton’s much heralded effort at reaching the finals as the first unbeaten team is impressive, but what did they beat on the way? Their Pool One opposition included Edinburgh, Cardiff and Castres – all solid but unspectacular sides. Cardiff finished sixth in the Magners League ahead of Edinburgh, who are eighth, while Castres were third in France. In the knockout rounds, Northampton beat Ulster and Perpignan. Ulster completed an Irish top three in the Magners League behind Leinster and Munster but the hard facts are that Perpignan finished ninth in the Top 14. Whatever happened at Welford Road earlier in the season when the French side drew with Leicester was remarkable because a team like Northampton should beat a team like Perpignan at home about 75 per cent of the time. In contrast, Leinster emerged from Pool Two which included Clermont, Saracens and Racing Metro. As a reminder, the two French sides have reached the semi-finals of the Top 14 playoffs, while Saracens are in the Premiership final. Then in the knockout stages Leinster went on to beat Leicester and Toulouse. Both teams topped their respective leagues and have won six of the previous 15 Heineken Cups between them. It’s quite a contrast in form, and to use racing terminology there is little improvement to come from Northampton, who have to do it without Tom Wood. The Premiership’s player of the season is a big loss to Saints and it will make life around the fringes that much easier for Isaac Boss, the scrum-half, and Jonny Sexton who has scored the most points in the tournament this season. That said, Boss has injury concerns of his own alongside hooker Richardt Strauss (hip), prop Mike Ross (leg) and Brian O’Driscoll (knee) who all have niggling problems. Ross is a particular concern, as even though he has been an inspiration at scrum time this season there is no doubt that the gruesome Saints front row will fancy their chances of unsettling him. The fact that Ramon Poite, the French referee with an eye for good forward play, is in the middle will also add further encouragement to Dylan Hartley and Co. As far as how the match is going to pan out, Leinster have been restricted to under 20 points in just two of their Heineken Cup matches this season. Leicester and Castres were the teams responsible for containing the free-scoring Irish side and both have better defensive records than Northampton this season. It is tempting to think that this could be a high-scoring fixture with the firepower that both sides bring to the table but finals by their very nature exert big pressure and this fixture is notoriously low scoring. The total points average for the past 15 finals is just over 36.06, with only three of those matches busting the 40 points barrier. With only 26 tries scored at an average of 1.73 a match, you would be hard pressed to make
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