Horse Racing Stakes – Santa Paula Stakes at Santa Anita on March 20

Santa Anita Park, still the Great Race Place, showcases three-year-old fillies going 6 ½ furlongs in the Santa Paula Stakes, S.A.’s horse racing betting feature, on Sunday, March 20.

Eight gals will enter the starting gate for the $100,000 Santa Paula Stakes on Sunday.  Trainer John Sadler saddles two of the fillies, Dawnie Macho and Hout Bay. Will either one of Sadler’s gals take home the trophy?  Or, is there another filly entered that could surprise?

Santa Anita Park – Race 8

Where:  Arcadia, California When:  March 20, 2011 at 7:07 pm EST TV:  HRTV

Santa Paula Stakes

Purse $100,000. For Fillies, Three-Years-Old. 6 ½ furlongs over dirt

pp.8 – Mildly Offensive – - 5/2 fair betting odds

I don’t really believe that if Mildly Offensive wins the Santa Paula Stakes on March 20, it will be considered a “surprise”.  The Carla Gaines trainee keeps 24% at the meet winning jockey Rafael Bejarano for her first against winners.  Rafa should be sitting on one of the horse racing stakes betting favorites on Sunday.  Mildly Offensive dueled, cleared the field and then drew off for a 4 ½ length victory in her maiden score.  The horse has produced 2 scintillating works since then including a 5 furlong :58 and 2 move on March 13.  Bejarano should be able to track the other speed, if there is any, or simply take the lead and go on with it in this race.  If the odds are fair, then I’m going to dump on this filly.  

pp.3 – Dawnie Macho – - 7/2 fair betting odds

The 2010 Landaluce Stakes victor didn’t fair as well in her 2 races against graded company.  She returns to the non-graded stakes ranks on Sunday for trainer Sadler and should be considered a horse to consider wagering on in the Santa Paula Stakes.  The main knock is that Sadler’s main guy, Joel Rosario, stays aboard Hout Bay.  Sadler could have put Rosario, or Rosario could have taken the mount, aboard Dawnie Macho since Dawnie’s jockey, Victor Espinoza, will be riding her for the first time.  I still like Dawnie more than I like Hout Bay because she can race on the lead or at least press Mildly Offensive.  I have to use Dawnie Macho just in case she re-discovers her past form.

pp.5 – Hout Bay – - 7/2 fair betting odds

Because of the presence of Joel Rosario, and because John Sadler saddles her, Hout Bay could leave the starting gate in the Santa Paula Stakes as the horse racing odds favorite.  The Harlan’s Holiday progeny was very, very impressive in her maiden victory on Jan. 22.  She, like Mildly Offensive, has been working very well in the morning and she showed an explosive closing kick in her maiden win that might get better with distance.  Her likely off odds should be lower than what I deem fair, however, making her a tough filly to back to win in this race.

Horse Wagering Strategy

If Mildly Offensive goes off at 5/2 odds or higher, then I’m going to bet on her to win.  In any case, I am going to use her on top in an exacta with Hout Bay.  I will reverse for less.

I will bet another exacta with Mildly Offensive over Dawnie Macho.  I will reverse that exacta for less.  I will bet a trifecta with Mildly Offensive in the first slot, Dawnie Macho and Hout Bay in the second slot and ALL in the third slot.

Good luck!

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