Pirates fan/fader says 2011 club is the real deal

Greg Mercer is a super fan first and and sports bettor second. That’s why it was so hard for him to bet against the Pirates in each of their 162 games last season. Of course, the profit he made from fading that 57-win club made things a little bit easier. Mercer’s spread sheet detailing his bets on every Pirates game got him some love from us and MSNBC writer Darren Rovell. We thought we check in with Greg and get his thoughts on the Bucs this season, now that they’ve be the best bet in baseball at 14.15 units.Here’s our Q&A session with Greg: Q: Did you always have an interest in wagering on sports or was last season’s project more of an experiment?A: I’ve had an interest in sports betting since my first trip to Las Vegas about 10 years ago. I felt that I might have a slight edge due to watching sports so much and being a big stat-head, although Vegas can put you in your place pretty quickly. Either way, betting on sports makes watching the games more exciting (and agonizing).Q: Why did you decide to do this experiment in the 2010 season? Did you have a feeling going into last season that it was going to be an especially awful season, even by the Bucs’ standards? A: I’ve been following the Pirates since I was eight years old. I cried for an hour when Sid Bream sank the Pirates in 1992 (when I was 14). Ever since then, and especially in the last six years, I’ve been witness to some pretty bad Pirates teams. As the years of losing continued, my expectations for winning got lower and lower. At the end of each season I would say, “Man, I should have bet on them to lose every game. I bet I could have made some money.”  At the beginning of the 2010 season, I looked at the roster and knew that the team would be as bad, if not worse, than the teams from the previous two seasons that lost nearly 100 games each. It was then when I finally decided I would bet $20 of real money against the team in each game.Q: What did you hope to aplish from the project? Did you think that oddsmakers were overrating your club and you just saw it as a way to profit or were you just trying to laugh off the pain of supporting a losing franchise?A: I suppose it was a little of both. I think the oddsmakers set the over/under on Pirates wins at 72 last year. I felt that the only chance they could win that many games would be if every player on the team had a career season. Although I am not a betting expert, I did some calculations and figured that as long as the Pirates lost around 95 games that I woulde out ahead. At the same time, I had be desensitized to all of the losing over the years. I thought it would be fun to share my pain with the world, so I started a weekly YouTube show called “This Week In Real Pirateball” to give my rational and blunt opinions on the team. I used the betting experiment as a feature on the show each week. Q: What was the reaction like from Pirates fans at the end of last season when your betting project became viral? A: I think most felt it was a neat story, especially since the team was so awful. I don’t remember any backlash from anyone. Although fading a team for an entire season isn’t a new concept, several people told me it was a pretty smart idea and that they wish they had done the same thing.Q: What did you hope to aplish with your betting spread sheet?I wanted to catalog the entire season of bets including a short explanation of what happened in each game. I created a profit chart to highlight what parts of the season were not profitable and the streaks that greatly increased my profit. It was just like a chart for the stock market. I also wanted to make my own data table for the team’s stats and some more betting-specific stats like average winning-bet line, return on investment, and splits on how much money I won on home or road games as well as money and runline bets. Q: You’re clearly a big Pittsburgh sports fan. Do you have trouble betting against the Pirates, Penguins or Steelers?A: I never had a problem betting against the Pirates because of the realistic view I had of the team. I normally don’t bet on other sports, but if I had a feeling one of my favorite teams would lose, I’d be able to put my loyalties aside. Q: What’s your take on this year’s Bucs team? Do you finally get the sense that Pittsburgh management is making good decisions or do you think this is just a fluke year?A: I hate to say it’s a fluke, but let’s be realistic – no one saw thising. Several players are probably having career seasons, and the NL Central is extremely weak this season. The starters have carried the team all year. Still, when you think about all of the injuries to starting players like Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, and Ryan Doumit, you start to wonder how much better the offense and the team as a whole would have been had they been healthy.  I figured the team would be better than last year and would maybe win 70 to 75 games if things went right. At this point in time, I don’t see any reason why they won’t flirt with the .500 mark this season, providing the pitching staff doesn’t collapse.  Q: I know you’re working on a simulated bet-against Pirate spread sheet this season, but have you been betting this baseball season much for real? And if so on or against the Pirates?  A: I haven’t bet any real money on baseball this year. I was exhausted mentally from the grind of the season, every night was a roller coaster. I would switch from hoping the team would hold on to a win to hoping they would blow the game so I could win more money.  I didn’t want to go through it again, especially since I thought the team would be better. This year, I decided to do a simulation just for fun to see if I could still “win” money by using a slightly different strategy than last year. Had I bet for real, I’d be down over 12 units. I’m pretty happy that I cashed out when I did.

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