Struggling Cincinnati Takes on Solid Atlanta in Key NL Series

The struggling Cincinnati Reds, who so far haven’t come close to repeating their performance from a season ago that led to the NL Central Division title, take on one of the more solid teams in the NL, the Atlanta Braves, this weekend in a key three game series.

While the Reds have struggled, the Braves have kept pace with arguably the best team in Major League Baseball this season, the Philadelphia Phillies.  Atlanta is at 58 and 4, only 4 games behind the Phillies for the lead in the NL East.

At 48 and 50, the Cincinnati Reds are 4 games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates, yes, that’s right, the in the NL Central.  Who will show up in this key NL Series over the weekend? 

MLB Series of the Weekend

Three games from July to July 4 at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Game

When:  July at 7:0 pm EST

Atlanta Braves – Jair Jurrjens, -3, .6 ERA Cincinnati Reds – Bronson Arroyo, 7-8, 5.57 ERA

Analysis:  Tough matchup for Arroyo.  That’s the only way to describe this likely -pitcher’s duel.  Jair Jurrjens has been absolutely brilliant for the Atlanta Braves this season.  He’s on his way to a Cy Young Award while Bronson Arroyo has struggled.

Jurrjens dominated Cincinnati on May 9 in a to Atlanta victory.  He pitched 8 innings and allowed only 6 hits and a single run.  Arroyo lasted only 3 innings, allowing 9 hits and 5 runs, in a 6 to 7 loss to the Braves on May 8.

Pick:  The Braves and Jurrjens are only -5 on the moneyline to beat the Reds tonight.  My suggestion is that baseball gamblers jump all over that line because the value is definitely there on Jair Jurrjens.  He should dominate Cincinnati again.

Game

When:  July 3 at 4:0 pm EST

Atlanta Braves – Derek Lowe, 6-7, 4.37 ERA Cincinnati Reds – Homer Bailey, 4-4, 3.74 ERA

Analysis:  This should be a very good matchup between two decent, but not spectacular, pitchers.

Lowe can control a game if his stuff is good, but it hasn’t been all that good this season.  The 6 and 7 record speaks to that fact.  The ERA is higher than expected and Lowe’s .39 WHIP is horrendous.

Bailey has a .7 WHIP and was fantastic in his last trip to the mound.  He dominated the St. Louis Cardinals allowing only run off of 3 hits in 7. innings.  If Bailey shows up strong on Saturday, then even Lowe’s best stuff might not help the Braves stay away from an “L”.

Pick:  Lowe was horrible against Cincinnati on May 8, giving up 5 runs off of 7 hits in less than 4 innings.  He figures to be better on Saturday, but Bailey is turning into a solid, solid pitcher for the Reds.  I have to go with Bailey and Cincy.

Game 3

When:  July 4 at 8:05 pm EST

Atlanta Braves – Brandon Beachy, 3-, 3.75 ERA Oakland Athletics – Dontrelle Willis, 0-, 3.38 ERA

Analysis:  So, that’s what happened to Dontrelle Willis!  I’ve been wondering about the former NL Rookie of the Year.  Willis won the award in 003.  He led the NL in wins in 005.  Willis has only pitched in two games this season and he’s been decent in both.  Against Milwaukee on July 0, Dontrelle gave up runs off of 4 hits in 6 innings.  Against Pittsburgh on July 8, Willis runs off of 5 hits in 4. innings of work.  Cincinnati lost both games, however.

Brandon Beachy is riding a 3 games losing streak for the Braves.  In the last game that he started, against the Colorado Rockies, Beachy gave up 6 runs off of 9 hits in 4. innings.  Will he break the losing streak on Sunday?

Pick:  I don’t think so.  I like Beachy.  He’s a decent pitcher, but Willis will be pitching in his third game of the season.  This isn’t 003 or 005, but Willis still has a very good arm.  Sunday will also be the first time he’s starting at home.  I have to believe that Willis will bring his best stuff in front of the Reds’ home fans in the third game of this series and that his best stuff will be good enough to hand the Braves another loss.  

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